We're going to be hearing the president talk about farm-derived biofuels as a vital component of "energy independence" in his State of the Union address (SOU) on January 23. We're going to hear him say switchgrass again, as he did last year:
We'll also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass.
But he'll probably say even more about switchgrass this time, because in just the past twelve months the ethanol economy has grown explosively, bringing profound changes to the agricultural landscape in the Midwest, the Corn Belt's economy, and to the policy context for the farm bill debate that's upon us. Politically, ethanol is the opposite of a wedge issue. Republicans and Democrats are in a veritable bidding war of support for ethanol and other biofuels. (I'll be writing about ethanol a lot.)
Switchgrass is a much-discussed candidate for the next generation feedstock for ethanol, after, that is, ethanol expands beyond corn grain and goes cellulosic.
The question for this post: is corn-based ethanol a transition, or an enduring endpoint?
The pluses of switchgrass are usually enumerated from the farmers' (and ostensibly the environmentalists') standpoint: it's a perennial plant (doesn't have to be planted every year like corn), requires less herbicide and fertilizer (corn uses both prodigiously), controls erosion, and provides habitat for wildlife. Plus it captures carbon dioxide instead of emitting it, and sequesters carbon in its root system. From those standpoints, and several others, it is superior to corn and far superior to oil as a fuel stock.
But switchgrass-based ethanol does not hold the same attractions for agricultural input suppliers. If you're in the business of making and selling seed and herbicides every year, especially seeds you've bioengineered to sprout plants that resist your herbicides, a massive shift to a perennial crop that doesn't have to be reseeded each year and requires next to no herbicide for its culture is not exactly an attractive turn of commerce.
These companies might well prefer to position corn as the cellulosic feedstock of the future by continuing to increase its utilizable biomass--grain and stover--meaning that ethanol production would entail removal of virtually all the vegetation above the soil surface at harvest. That vegetation--referred to it as 'agricultural waste' in media accounts from time to time--is currently left in corn fields after the grain is combined (well over 90 percent of the corn ground). It's about the only thing preventing even more of the Midwest from ending up in the Gulf of Mexico. It's mulch. To an aggie, calling it 'waste' is like calling topsoil 'dirt'.
Even as the technology for converting ethanol plants from corn grain to cellulosic feedstocks comes online, corn will have a big advantage over switchgrass: investment in plant breeding for corn, almost all of it in the private sector, beggars that for switchgrass, which has been mostly a public sector enterprise. To that should be added the sunk cost in corn equipment on the farm (and the stance equipment manufacturers will take) and in existing ethanol plants.
One more factor favoring corn: have you ever heard of the powerful switchgrass lobby?
If this is the direction the ethanol economy takes--corn as the cellulosic feedstock of choice--we have to ask if we are looking at the technological equivalent, in biofuels, of the old, dirty, coal-fired power plant or the infernal combustion engine? Will we be stuck with a first-generation system that does indeed provide energy, but at a high environmental cost, and that becomes extremely difficult to displace with smarter, cleaner, more efficient systems down the road?
Even if you see positives in the ethanol revolution that's underway, as I do, there are many more questions to ask about it, including the questions my friend Lester Brown has been raising.
But clearly one of the central policy issues in the 2007 farm bill will be how to make the transition happen from grain ethanol to a more sustainable biofuel economy.