Did Brazil Wait Too Long?
Yes.
Brazil is now making the case before yet another WTO panel for the right to retaliate against the United States for our cotton subsidies. At issue: an earlier panel's finding that counter-cyclical payments, marketing loans and commodity certificates/loan forfeitures for U.S. cotton caused serious prejudice to cotton growers in Brazil and Africa.
The U.S. government is fighting this phase of the process with everything they've got.
So only the threat of retaliation--not a specific action--will be in play during the farm bill debate this year, because the new WTO panel is unlikely to complete its work before U.S. legislation is largely formulated, and perhaps enacted.
Brazil has already said they don't like the Johanns farm bill proposal. They must especially dislike the increased money for cotton, even if more of it is in "decoupled" fixed payment form. Why? Because as EWG's research has shown, the vast majority farmers who get "decoupled" cotton payments grow cotton nonetheless. Only the biofuels boom might change that pattern...but probably not enough to satisfy Brazil.
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