Farm Bill: Does Breaking WTO Crop Subsidy Rules
Matter To Congress?
Only under one of two circumstances.
The first is when the WTO rules that the violation is outright illegal. That was the case with export subsidies (like the Step 2 program) in Brazil's victory over the United States on cotton subsidies. Congress had no choice but to repeal the program, and did.
The second is when a transgression gains the aggrieved party a WTO-approved shot at trade retaliation, and they take it. Brazil finally has won that shot, years after the WTO determined that an array of domestic U.S. cotton subsidies caused "serious prejudice" to cotton growers in Brazil and elsewhere. The WTO has recently ruled that the elimination of Step 2 and modifications to U.S. loan programs that subsidized exports were insufficient remedies to Brazil's original complaint.
If Brazil does not now press forward, and quickly, with sanctions that have a bite, the subsidy lobby and its defenders in Congress will be reaffirmed in their view that, where U.S. farm programs are concerned, the WTO is mostly there to be ignored.
Nothing breeds disdain or disrespect faster in a red-blooded, red-state, law 'n order type than the whiff of an opponent who is soft on crime.
To the extent that forcing change in our domestic subsidies--meaning reductions in the level of support, not outright elimination--was the goal, Brazil might just as well have wallowed in the tar pits of Doha if it dallies further in pursuing the cotton complaint to a meaningful conclusion. The new, broader subsidy case Brazil has initiated against the US, alleging a breach in our allowed "aggregate measure of support", will be seen as a theoretical threat, years distant, if the clear win on domestic cotton subsidies comes to naught (notwithstanding Canada's pursuit of a parallel complaint). And Brazil's standing as a leader for the developing world at the WTO will suffer a serious, perhaps irretrievable, setback.
Acting USDA Secretary Chuck Conner, like Mike Johanns before him, has described the increased crop target prices and loan rates in the House and Senate farm bills as "a bullseye on the back of the American farmer" at the WTO.
That won't matter one wit to the subsidy lobby if they conclude their adversaries in Geneva are firing blanks.
UPDATE: The AP ran a piece this morning about the increased risk of WTO litigation posed by the House and Senate bills, featuring an interview with straight-shooting (and soon to retire) Keith Collins, USDA's chief economist.
The subsidy challenges by U.S. trading partners have been lodged through the World Trade Organization. A WTO ruling in December slammed the U.S. for not sufficiently complying with an earlier ruling that cotton subsidies need to be curtailed.Substantial counter-cyclical farm payments and marketing-assistance loan programs are still under fire, Collins said, and Congress' proposals don't address the problems.
"Under the House and Senate farm bill proposals," he said, "they do not reform domestic programs in a way that would eliminate such challenges and, in fact, they may aggravate such challenges."



